Euro 2016: Top Goalscorer Betting Preview

We’ve all got our opinions as to who will win Euro 2016: the patriots will be backing England, the romantics will tip Spain to complete a hat-trick of titles, the statisticians will be supporting France given that they have won their last two major tournaments on home soil, while the realists will be looking to Germany to take home yet another trophy.

That’s a debate in which all of the headline-making teams are available at short prices – and thus there’s not much appeal for the erstwhile punter. Instead, many will seek potentially profitable avenues elsewhere; one of which is the Top Goalscorer market.

The most logical way to enjoy success here is to bet smart. Take a look at the most recent winners of the Golden Boot at subsequent tournaments: Fernando Torres (2012), David Villa (2008), Milan Baros (2004), Patrick Kluivert (2000). What do they all have in common? Well, they are all strikers, as expected, and all of their respective teams went deep into the competition; Spain won in 2012 and 2008, the Czech Republic reached the semi-finals in 2004 as did Holland at the turn of the Millennium.

So, for Euro 2016 we’re looking for a centre forward who plays for a country likely to reach the last four at the very least and will then, hopefully go on to score in the final. Who are the prime candidates then?

Thomas Muller (8/1)
Although he’s not a natural centre forward, Muller has often led the line for club and country and with such an eye for goal there’s no wonder: he bludgeoned 32 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich this season, rattled home nine in Euro 2016 qualifying and recorded five goals in each of the World Cups in 2010 and 2014. Here’s a guy who knows the way to goal.

So the goalscoring ability is in place, as is the knack for finding the net in big matches/tournaments. And, as we’ve already discussed, playing for a team that looks set to progress through the tournament is a huge advantage, and you can’t see Germany slipping up until a potential semi-final with hosts France.

Muller’s cause is helped further by an agreeable group for Germany which features Poland, Ukraine and Northern Ireland, and should they top that pile then a likely round of 16 clash with Croatia/Czech Republic/Turkey awaits. In short, there is ample opportunity for Muller to net the goals he needs to take home the Golden Boot trophy.

Antoine Griezmann (10/1)
There are few superlatives left to be thrown Griezmann’s way after his goal-laden exploits for Atletico Madrid in La Liga and the Champions League. He netted side’s defeat of Bayern Munich in the latter competition as they booked their place in Milan’s showpiece final, and all in all he scored 32 goals in all competitions and seven in twelve in Europe’s premier competition. No wonder he is being backed so readily here....

We don’t have any stats from qualifying to work with as France were exempt from doing so as hosts, but a record of seven goals in 26 games for his country is hardly scintillating stuff from the 25-year-old. The caveat is that he is in the form of his life, although punters will wonder if Griezmann is set to be shunted to either flank to accommodate Olivier Giroud or Anthony Martial as the central striker.

If that is the case, then history dictates that he won’t have a boot-shaped trophy to add to his cabinet come July.

Aritz Aduriz (40/1)
What a story the 35-year-old’s ascent from forgotten man to European Championship line-leader has been. It was way back in 2010 when Aduriz, a noted goalscorer domestically in Spain but nothing more, made his debut for his country. A couple of caps followed, but he was unable to establish himself as an international striker and disappeared into the La Liga wilderness.

But after a blistering campaign for Athletic Bilbao in which he has netted 36 times in 55 appearances, Aduriz returned to his nation’s consciousness following the loss of form of Diego Costa and Fernando Torres.

And now, in his eighteenth season as a professional football, the Basque man will finally get to represent his country in a major tournament.

Dark Horses
Robert Lewandowski (16/1)
We’ll use the tag of dark horse loosely here, but that’s all we can apply to Lewandowski given that we have no real idea as to how his Poland side will fare at Euro 2016. Since the World Cup of 1982, they have escaped their group in just one of five appearances in a major tournament.

So the Poles’ progress will impact upon the amount of game time that Lewandowski gets, although this is a frontman that doesn’t need asking twice to find the net; he bagged a remarkable 44 goals in 49 matches for Bayern this season, and was the top marksman in qualifying for this competition with 13.

If we look into our crystal balls we could envisage Poland escaping Group C given that they have been paired with Germany, Ukraine and Northern Ireland, and if they were to finish runners-up here as expected then a probable last 16 meeting with Switzerland is in the offing. Winnable? Absolutely.

A possible quarter-final showdown with Spain may be the Poles’ curtain call, but by this point Lewandowski would have had five games – or 450 minutes – to make his mark on the tournament. Given that he averaged a goal every 67 minutes this season that gives him ample time.

Anthony Martial (30/1)
The young Frenchman enjoyed a fine first season as a Manchester United player in 2015/16, and while he was less than prolific (11 in 31) we should not write off the hopes of a striker who is likely to start in a side poised to go the distance on home soil.

He is yet to open his account for France in eight appearances, but he should take centre stage given Karim Benzema’s off-the-field woes have sandboxed him from selection. And that might be just the chance the 20-year-old needs in this exciting young French side.

Mario Gomez (40/1)
At the other end of the age spectrum is Mario Gomez, who at the age of 30 has the feel of a man that has been around forever.

Despite their undoubted brilliance Germany aren’t blessed with central striking options, so it will be Gomez once again who is pressed into action as an old-fashioned number nine. He’s had a decent domestic campaign, albeit in Turkey having been farmed out by Fiorentina to Besiktas, but even so a goal return of 26 in 33 cannot be ignored.

He bagged three goals in Euro 2012 and the second in Germany’s 2-3 loss to England back in March, so there is every chance he will start for his country in France this summer. If he does so, expect him to make a mockery of that 40/1 price.